It is coming.....

Enjoy it, or not....

muhahahha 

VIX + 11.11% today, means anything?

 

 

 

keep your guard up , at all times

J

 

 

reinstated 50% short at CMCSA AT 21.97

 

 

added 50% at ES 1244.25

Now riding 100%

AVG.  around 1241

COVERED 25% MORE AT 1237.75

Let's say it matches this one

edit:

Avg forremaining 50% position  : 1237.5

Half out CMCSA AT 21.42

around 3% up on this one

covered recently added batch at 1239.25 for minor profit

added 25% at 1240.75

 

 

added 25% short at 1238.5

trade was around 1: 02 pm but only called at the chatroom, couldn't update blog timely.

sorry


riding 75% now

added 25 % at 1234.25

 

 

25% more off at 1229.5

 

 

covered last batch at 1232.5 for an easy 6 pointer

 

 

added 25% shorts at ES 1238.25

 

 

Conservative traders should cover most if not all shorts around here (1233 ES)

 

 

25% more off at ES 1230.50

25% off at ES 1235.5

 

 

FWIW I reinstated shorts at 1241 before the anouncement, still holding SL 1243.75

All covered ES 1040.5

Will reshort later

 

 

added 50% CMCSA AT 22.21

AVG 22.06 

SL AT 22.54 

Shorted CMCSA 50% AT 21.91

 

 

reinstated 25% shorts at 1238

Riding 75% now

Shorted ES @ 1241

25% off at 1239
25% off at 1235.75

holding rest for tomorrow.

What,  FOMC is gonna hurt me ???    We will see....

shorted ES 1236.75

after taking some off I covered remaining at 1235.75 early in the morning waiting for higher prices to come later in the session. See newer post

sorry for late updates but we trade RT mostly at the chat room.

shorted ES 1234.5 - sl 1237

DIE MOFOS !

Hasta la vista Bulls :)

MUHAHAHHA

25% off at 87.5 CL

 

Shorted CL 87.94

SL 88.56

 

 

 

Added 50% to CL shorts at 85.82

stops for all at 86.5

25% more off CL at 84.2

+ 140 ticks on this one

riding remaining 25%

Half out CL at 84.81

shorted CL 85.6

From now on I will continue to post my trades at www.tradeforthegoal.com   blog only.
SL AT 86.2
GL

Covered CL at 84.02

 

 

stopped NQ AT 2140

+29.5 handles on this one

half out CL at 83.21

remains 25% in

shorted CL 50% at 84

 SL 84.3

25% more off NQ at 2160

+ 50 handles on this one

riding remaining 25%

25% more off NQ at 2145

+35 pts on this batch 

25% NQ off at 2126

+16 pts

added 50% NQ longs at 2110.5

 

 

long NQ 2110 50%

 

 

Covered remaining CL at 82

Entry and stop 

covered all NQ 2143

25% x 19pts
50% x 49 pts

Original entry

25% off at NQ 2136.5 for a quick 12.5 pts

remains 75% in

Covered GS AT 159.4 -

ENTRY

Although it was profitable it was a Very very very bad trade guys, sorry about that :(

Reinstated 50% NQ longs at 2124

EDIT: 

FWIW , SL for CL remains at 80.50  

GO BUUUUULLS :)

Half out NQ AT 2137

position mgmt


25% x 47.25 pts
25% x 4pts

edit: shifted stops at 2117

Covered 50% CL at 82.82

that was SOME ride uh?  1.82 pts ( 182 ticks)



remains 25% in,

covered remaining INTC AT 20.97

bad bad trade :(

reinstated 25% long at NQ 2133

took 25% off CL at 81.54

Long CL 80.93 VST

Mental stop at  80.50,

Covered last 25% batch at 2100 for a quick 10 pointer

letting the rest ride

Reinstated 25% NQ long at 2089.75

stopped from remaining CL position at 81.64 ;(

25% off at NQ 2107.25

25% off at NQ 2107.25

 

Position management

 

25% off CL at 82.9

long NQ at 2093.75

hedge for previous short positions,

Re entered long CL at 82.11

will set the stop level soon

long CL 82.2

EDIT : stops now set at 81.92

covered 82.94

Edit:
Sorry, I had to cover short after opening it cause it was not the right time.

bot 50% CL - 82.4

Enjoying your holiday little bulls ? -

More heat to come for ya IMO ,

Wish bulls have a nice holiday :) - muhahahha

english lyrics

Covered CL at 85.4 - timed out

Entry 

covered DX longs at 78.24

Entry 

50% long CL at 84.74

covered SPY NOV 119 p, at 1.09

covered USO at 36.53

small loss on this trade

aggressive traders may be interested in buying CL at 84.88 for a nice vst run :)

EDIT . SL NEAR 84. 25
I AM NOT TAKING IT, IS JUST AN IDEA


FWIW I AM STILL SHORT USO FROM 36 AND PLANING TO COVER AS SOON AS I GET SIGNAL

covered remaining position of CL at 86.3

ENTRY 

VST traders should cover most CL shorts at 86.5 - 86.7

and as stated several hours ago, bulls were hidden at 1200 area :

When in doubt, go back to basics :)

Basics: what cannot be improved



These guys performed this way when there was little or no models to copy, in front of cold TV cameras and without audience to warm it up. I know 1000 bands which cannot perform 1 / 100th of this even in front of 30k ppl, Why?. Cuz DP was not copying, just enjoying creating their own stuff.  Why shouldn't we all ? 


Couldn't resist adding this one: hear it from 3:20 min time  mark: pure live recording,   not a single special FX,  just white light and RNR. This performance took place 37 years ago and I can assure it will kick ass to 90% of current bands. Learn young music stars, learn.....

half out CL at 87.81 - timing out

Edit: 
time bound forced me but this time the rule was respected, is all okis , tho the first target was 86.86, next ( but not last)  85

Be extremely careful with shorts around 1200 area on ES, the bull is not dead yet and will be hidden around there

Shorted remaining 50% CL at 88.11

edited: stops set at 88.77

shorted CL 50% position at 87.96

I will cry all night

I exited CSCO yesterday as I stated RT, in order to keep account balance within risk parameters but broke one key rule: never exit a position if a stop or limit order was not hit. I broke it and now I am paying for it: I had a great setup and I spoiled it...

:(


     
05:49 PM Eastern Standard Time, 11/10/2010 (MidnightTrader) --
 Cisco (CSCO) tumbled lower in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates but also issuing a weak Q2 sales outlook.

CSCO dropped to a negative range of 24.12 to 23.29 through the first-half of night trade. Sellers surged into the issue in the mid-session and second-half, hammering the stock south from 23.36 to a late low of 20.97. Evening indications would suggest CSCO records a potential pre-market open Thursday near the 21 mark. The stock demonstrates a mixed session-to-session performance on earnings announcements, posting wider next-day closing levels following 15 out of its last 29 extended-hours earnings events. In the near-term, the stock has moved to favoring a reversal trend, cutting back or narrowing its earnings-driven after-hours moves in the next day's regular session in 10 of the last 12 quarters. Looking deeper into the performance data, we noted earlier today that shorts should be interested to know that CSCO has seen a negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 17 of the 29 quarters we've tracked, and in 11 of those downside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive negative run in the next day's regular session. The stock's tendency to add to evening downside moves, combined with some rather aggressive sell momentum in the shares tonight would have us looking at a potential short play on the issue tomorrow. Early shorts may want to peg potential entry points at 22 to 21.50, an area that set up as an early second-half top. More risk tolerant shorts may want to bring the entry down to 21.40 to 21.20 in anticipation of the stock starting the day below or near these levels and perhaps making another move south toward 21 or below.
Price: 21.22, Change: -3.27, Percent Change: -13.3
(C) 2010 MidnightTrader, Inc. All rights reserved.  



What was the right trade here? shorting 24.3 as I did or just trusting  this crap will make everyone rich at  the stock market?.
Probably this is just an isolated event but many times one small group of stocks carve the path for the rest of the market to follow.... if this is the case with CSCO, are you prepared?

It is possible we will revisit 1225 area soon but my mssg is: Do you have a  plan in case we don't ?


GL

Covered half DX at 77.64

Exited CSCO at 24.3

Twice!!

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. 
Albert Einstein 




After reaching 10% UE rate, losing a high % of popularity, and more evidently, lot of political power after recent elections these guys bring us the same solution that accelerated this problem... 
In addition to that, they admit the sole objective is to boost equities prices....what about FED's main objective which is job posts creation??? oh , it doesn't matter, stock market prices is all that matters...... We will see...

more....

keep on dancing guys, keep on dancing... just be aware if music suddenly stops....

source: 

LONG DX AT 74.85 after being stopped overnight at 76.0 for a loss

now 100% invested

shorted CSCO AT 24.3

Bot SPY Nov 119 puts at 1.41

shorted USO at 36

Just a beautiful Tango

Perfect execution by Charlo. Not so famous but brilliant singer.
Enjoy

covered CL remaining at 81.35

half out CL at 81.3

long CL 80.65 - risky VST trade

covered remaining CL at 81.82

Covered half CL at 81.4

Shorted CL 82.05

Reinstated 25% long DX at 77.42

exited all CL position at 81.7

reinstated 50% short CL at 81.98

shorted GS at 160.3

Covered 25% more of CL at 80.63

now riding 50% position

covered 25% of CL at 80.9

covered 25% more of DX at 78.23

covered ORCL at 28.58

shorted INTC 19.94

shorted CL 81.82

covered Cl 82.36

reshorted CL 82.6 - SL 83

took 25% off of ORCL AT 28.63

shorted CL 82.39 - SL 82.65

edited:


VST

shorted GS 159.13 - SL 161

Reinstated 25% long DX at 77.63

25% off of DX at 78.25

Again: Would you join them?

Thanks to my friend Eris for this heads up :)

Look at this article and see if it sounds true... do you remember the stupid "fat finger" explanation they gave for the last flash crash?? what happened next: we revisited flash crash low, so it was not just a "mistake " that caused the foretelling drop....

SOURCE

Chart....

Nah, just forget about patacon, he is a sucker, we will take April highs soon ...

Shorted ORCL 29.2

covered ORCL 28.88

Would you join them? For how long?

Shorted ORCL 28.88

Covered 25% VXX at 15.00

Long DX 76.6 - SL 75.92

BOT 50% DX at 77.4

SL 77.0

Bot SPY Oct 116 puts - 0.4

Bot VXV 14.54

vst trade

To keep in mind...

shorted last batch at 1155.5

exit strategy only
bad trade , as it is evident

25% off at 1138

Staying short until further notice

reinstated 25% at 1142.5

Would you buy this "dip"?

talking about very short term trading....


pic taken at 1:30 pm EST

25% off at 1135.5 - position mgmt

+5 pts

staying short. no hard stop loss for now

LONG DX 78.58

sl 78.25

added 50 % at ES 1140

fully short . avg 1140.5.


What's your take ? :

shorted 50% ES 1141

Covered NQ at 1996.5

will reshort later

+12.75 pts

Covered all ES at 1135.25

75% x 3pts.

Staying short

may cover some at pullbacks if rally turns out to be fake

Trading idea : short CL at 77.8 - 77.9 area - SL around 78.7

Added 25% shorts at NQ 2009.25

covered last 25% batch at 1136.5

just managing position ( since i have time today :)

25% x 5.25 pt

added last 25% batch short at ES 1141.75

Long DX 78.97 . SL 78.7

Update: 

Stopped out at 78.7 for -0.27

covered NQ @ 2006,

bad trade,
may reshort later

stopped 2012 and reshorted 2008

never manage position or VST if you cant watch the market carefully ,
specially if you are attending f*cking meetings, surrounded by azzholes asking you stupid Qs.
damn it

-13 NQ pt x 25%

Added last 25% short at NQ 1999

equivalent to a 25% position on ES

edit: SL for this position : 2012

Alea iacta est

:)

Is this a breakout?

Charts say not yet:

REINSTADED 25% short at 1138.25

riding 75% now

ALL WRONG IF: solid close above SPX 1150

Conservative traders should cover more / most shorts at ES 1118 area

covered 1132 batch at 1123.5

+ 8.5 pts on this nested trade.

Just position management. Now riding 50%

Reinstated 25% shorts at 1132 ES

now riding 75%

PS, it is really sad to be so busy at work at days like today when mkt gives plenty of opportunities. I can hardly watch it today so just executing trade plan made yesterday... "blindly" :)

Covered 25% more at 1128.25

+ 10 pts on this batch

Conservative traders should use a stop above 1032-3 zone IMO

Keeping short position,

Just take a look at TNX and Crude :)

took 25% off at 1032.75

Shorted ES 1138.25 -

SL 1142.5

What team were you supporting?

Let's be honest: ev1 and their grannies was bullish last several days and particularly today while ES was trading around 1030. All of those who were seeing a bearish scenario these last days (like myself)  were called fools, to say the least....
Just dont look at US markets now. Look at what was ALREADY happening 2 hours before the US opening, some were celebrating a breakout (prior to the green tinted price action).

Tell me what is the character of the yellow area and the green area? any differences....?

Position stopped out- Bearish scenario stands until proven wrong ( not yet)

My level and conditions to reverse scenario are clear and predefined but not met already.

I may trade today after OPEX

SL around ES 1126

shorted ESZ0 1120.75 ST

Bearish scenarios stands

They did more than running stops overnight: a daily close to convince bulls.
They went farther than I expected but haven't convinced me yet. So I am still leaning to the short side, expecting now some "fun" on Tue and Wed ( and beyond)  :)

They will likely run bear stops on Friday close or Monday morning. Be prepared

GL

Update:

 I had shorted ESZ0 1105.5 on Thursday  and got stopped out in AH  after taking partial profits around ES 1097 but all the price action I am seeing really looks fake-bullish, will see how much they can  push it up before the "real-deal" :)

BTW, after playing long from ES 1040 to ES 1090 , I am short around SPX 1099

update _ 09-09 - 9:30 AM EST:

I was stopped AH during UE data spike and reshorted at the opening around SPX 1110

update 09-09 -11:00 AM EST -
 Covered 25% aorund SPX 1106 to reduce risk, letting the rest run.

update 09-09 2:oo PM EST
Conservative traders should cover more shorts around SPX 1102

updated 09-10 10:43 AM EST
I am keeping remaining position with a stop around SPX 1114

Whose the best??

Take it easy fresh champions, there are a lot of stars in the sky. You have achieved  one now, congrats. But don't forget there are constellations out there.

Argentina is the only place where futbol stadiums do not resound but BEAT and that is for a reason.

"No hay dos sin tres" (updated)

Universe and Nature tends to even up all distressing events. Market is no exception.

GL tomorrow.



PS, 
Most bloggers try to convey their thoughts with articles or charts at best. Very few demonstrate their knowledge and skills with successful trades. And although those are good ways to share knowledge, it is not less true that human being learn much more from their mistakes than from their good choices. So I decided to share a RT mistake with you. Not that it has ended up with bad results yet , in fact it is an ongoing trade but it is wrong from the get go. Why?. Cause it is going against major trend , and I am trying to get cute against it . So I have two possible outcomes : 
a) I get stopped out and lose money + possibility to stay on the right side of the trade for BIG profits. 
b) I got right, trade goes my way, I made some (LITTLE) money, I feel I am good and I do it AGAIN next time until a) occurs.

So this is  my testimonial trade:


" I did an horrid trade today, I' ve just bot around 1076 ES after the close"


11:00 am EST Update: 


After holding overnight and incurring in an excessive risk at doing so, I ve taken out some off at 1081  


08_13 Update
Finally they stopped me with the AH selloff yesterday. Even if  grabbed a couple of points, it was a sucker trade. Why? because it  makes you focus on the small fish, and losing attention to the bigger move, ( IT trend) , where the real money is.


However , one more rally may be in the works, but it will be only to shake out late bears before the real deal.


GL

Bite the dust ( it was announced uh ? )

Previous chapter here :   

Covered 25% remaining at 1095.5

+ 28.75 pts

May reshort later

Covered 25% at 1110.75

+ 10.25 x 25% ( calculated over last batch shorted , not over average). There fore holding 25% short from 1124.25

Added 25% to shorts at 1121

Now riding 50% of intended position

Covered 25% more at 1111

Another 13.25 x 25%

Took 25% more off at 1111

+13.25 pts

Took 25% off at 1117

+7.25 pts

Short position established at ES 1124.25

mental stop for now , will set hard stop after tomorrow.

Cost of choosing

There is a possibility we gap up on Monday and  go to 1135
There is a possibility we go to 1150
Famous trader said there is a possibility we go to 1187

It is evident that there is more than one "reasonable" choice. So what about other choices?. Have you made yours?

Before you do , remember, trading is like picking a path at a laberint: you will achieve something but you will also lose something, by definition.

Assessing potential losses if one is wrong  is even more important than assessing how much one will make if being right. Sound obvious, so I am sure everyone of us think about both aspects before entering any trade :)

The hidden truth

The Bull has gone a long way, defeating even the most bearish minds. Back then in our last post  on July 9 th ES was at 1066 , today's high was 1126. But everything  comes to an ending; and particularly at Fiesta Brava that ending is well known. The best and only companion of a true toro bravo (fighting bull) is death, which is always within its reach. For that reason, their mutual encounter is just a matter of time.

Enjoy

Pic from JavierSesma.

Where is market heading to?

Thanks to Gak for the pic

A word for bears: We don't forget about you and wondered the best way to convey this bitter tasted word: "upset" . Our old friend M. Monte gave us a hand with this phenomenal masterpiece: "Desilusão" on duet with Paulinho da Viola. 

Enjoy every1,  life is most important thing, always: 

Vamo' arriba la Celeste!!!

They were there from the beginning. Even before some of the current FIFA WC contenders knew anything about futbol, they were WC Champions.

Today Urugay is news but there is nothing new for ppl passionate about true futbol. Even if I am not Uruguayan I know very well about their relentless spirit about this sport. Newcomers may feel the way they beat Ghana today  was just luck... Let me tell you something: very few, if any team in the world, would have fought until the very end and the very limits of rules to defend their goal as they did today. Surprise,?  not at all, check back Maracanazo 1950 and you will see how these ppl fight to the very end no matter if odds were brutally against them. Charrua spirit





I know: " lack of sportmanship by hand goaling last ball of the match". If you ever played futbol with your heart you know that is not a fault, even if it deserves red card. "All or nothing at all"   is the name of WC, and you only win that game playing to your skin, and only a handful of teams know about how to play it. Uruguay is definitely one of them.

Lack of class???? OMY did you see how Abreu shot last penalty??? How many teams have players who are able to make such a classy, magnificent, shot to define a quarter final??? for sure Ghana has not, that is one of the reasons for the result.


Vamos la Celeste!!!! Hoy volviste a demostrar!!!!!

Amazing break down

Hands down, bears won it fair and square.
To be honest I didn't expect such a move . However I' d wait to see weekly close before drawing conclusions.
GL

Don't fall in love with shorts.

Accumulated a few calls at low 1070 on Friday .

I know everything looks so bearish uh? Specially at some blogs.
Bullish action   to resume strongly  early next week.

Keep your own analysis upfront, always. 

Daily close above 1084 = bull case stands

Pullback is likely over

The expected 1090 level was achieved yesterday. We may go a little lower ( ES1084 area) today which means a very important pivot point IT wise.
I ll give 70% chances we start a new and strong leg up from there.
30% chances we break down, in such a case expect a serious sell off.

GL

Next steps

IT stance remains bullish,

Regarding ST we had some pullback today  as expected despite huge gap up.

For tomorrow, we may have a gap up and some strength, but I believe pullback is not done yet, we still might visit 1090 or lower.

GL

Expect more pullback (weakness) on coming days

EOW update

Hi everyone,

Here is an update of the last post. Not posted much ever since, given my thoughts haven't changed much

Key levels respected:

Pattern, BBands, and MCOS all in sync as expected

And this is an updated of a chart posted on 05-25, when "doom" was all around the blogsphere :). Enjoy 

Isn't it a buy?

ST play these days

Played long from 1050 area to 1080 area a couple of times.
Expecting some pullback today, again, just to reload longs.

No changes in the road map

I am still seeing this as an opportunity to buy

GL

Roadmap

Hi,

I am sorry for my absence here and lack of regular posting. I am working and posting intraday and ST at www.tradeforthegoal.com as I commented earlier. Anyway, I wanted to share some thoughts with you before posting elsewhere:

Obviously my last support area didn't hold, bears were not done yet but I still see this is a correction (long awaited) prior to an upthrust  which may be already underway. I am aware that some well reputed traders are seeing this leg down is just starting and that it will be all the way down.

My plan is based, among other factors on:

•  the relative behavior of Nasdaq and other indices when retesting Feb lows 
•  support levels ( see 1) 
• weekly price structures ( see 2).
• Contrarian sentiment indicator (see3 )   :)

They may broke it all down early next week if they take out Feb lows with volume, else, I am sticking to this plan:

1.

2.

BBands and MCOS support:

As usual, thanks to Ui and MFC for the inspiration :)



3.   Perfect contrarian indicator. Please review this post to learn more

Clean

Open mind + deaf ears :)

(more at www.tradeforthegoal.com )

A in TA, D in trading

I couldn't trade today after early morning due to other commitments. Is a pity since today market did all the pending "work" we were signaling in our posts since February. If you remember ( or wish to dig in the archives, since 1086 ES we were saying it was a fake move, and it was so fake that only took an hour of real market action to wipe it out completely.
Just to quote a couple of those posts and see how they "sound" now:

• fake rallies

plz check that same chart now updated:

• poisoned food

However I have to admit I was wrong about expecting a retest of certain levels before the big drop ( now is even funny to talk about it uh ?).  So my trading plan was wrong regarding the retest part and wouldn't have made money today, which is not that bad , BUT.
How much could have made a good trader who followed this (his own)  T analysis?

This is the chart I posted back in late April as overall IT  map:

And this is the same chart and TA as of today:

Again: How much could have made a good trader who followed this (his own)  T analysis?. Sadly, I didn't follow it as I should have. 
Next steps are clear: improve this aspect


This is the big challenge now, follow your own analysis once it has become reliable  


So  new focus is + and better  trading and less TA. Therefore:  I will likely not post charts.


In addition to this, I have found some copies of  my charts and/or charting style elsewhere and regardless of the value public may assign to it, It took me effort and time to learn it and it is not nice to see it carbon copied elsewhere by other people who even claim to be its authors.



So this is a farewell to public TA - charting.


Hope you profited from todays  historic action.

Bad day

Ok guys and gals,
Bad day today. Started with nice profit (shorted yesterday AH 1199 covered 1189.5), and let a lot go at bad "timed" entries.
Time ( and timing)  is the key factor in this business as you may already know.
What failed today: Among others just check back this chart: . Also check this one posted on Friday at the home page 
 I got the idea right , at the right time, but failed to see it was already working out. I thought the bear phase would start later, and didnt hear market today telling me otherwise.
In any case, I believe we will have a nice bounce tomorrow, after that it will be the time to review old charts and measure to seize new bearish targets.

Plan for tomorrow and coming 2 days:

trading idea - long SPY JUN 118 calls - near 2.93 -

To make it  a little safer,  buy at the close if closing price is near LOD ,

risky ST trade

ALSO  QQQQ JUN 49 calls around 1.16

took 25% off 10869

counter trend trade ( just playing the bounce)

edit:  shifted stops to 10851

Long YM 10854 SL 10830

long 1170,25 SL 1168.75

all out

stopped for the rest

25% more off at 1180.50. this is starting to look ugly

25% OFF 79.25

long ES 1177.75, SL 1175.75

Game plan for coming days IV

Sorry about my relative absence here but I am actively contributing at www.tradeforthegoal.com (traders community)

Anyway, plan for next few days is bullish as I posted on Saturday. In brief:

Cancellation level is 1986 (typo at the chart)

Bulls are back, but will have a hard test today

watching nasdaq

This was our game plan for today (posted before opening at www.tradeforthegoal.com. )
It seems NQ tagged descending trend line just to break lows short after. However YM and other names showed a clear bullish behavior so we  have to be extremely careful with short again. In fact i am playing longs ST wise, tomorrow probably.
 

Only if this red thick line is taken out i will believe again in shorts ST / IT  wise

Update

quick update for you guys abut possible next steps,... will try to elaborate more later but I am under tight work schedule now.
Also, excuse me for little posting lately but I am involved in super interesting initiative: a particular and fast growing community of traders. You can learn more at www.tradeforthegoal.com.

Game plan for coming days 3

IF NQ can break out of ascending trendline and fill 2025 gap ( very likely) it should go to retest shorter trendline near blue rectangle zone

I believe we are not done yet

one more push down , even lower low is possible before the big bounce

Game plan for coming days 2

out all 1204.0 ( timed out)

shorted 1204.25

sl 1206

added to shorts at 1201 50%

sl for this one 1204

stopped from this one: pathetic trading guys. never try to trade ST / VST if you dont have time enough to watch the trade. I forgot this rule today and payed the price. Stupid!!
 -3 x 50%

Moment of truth for MSFT

May be an interesting proxy for techs, but in any case an interesting setup.

Chart as of yesterday AM.

reshorted 25% at 1189.5

covered 100% at 1189

Limit order hit in AH

3.75 x 100%

shorted ES 1192.75 100%

stopped from previous position

-2.75 x 50%

Short ES 1189.75 50%

SL 1192

quick note: Very likely a good spot to short for a quick move here

stopped from las ES position at 1187

-0.75 x25 %

Covered 1183.25 position at 1183.5

I won't be able to trade tomorrow so I am covering this one and putting Stop loss at 1187 for the rest.

-0.25 pt x 25%

Indicators??? No joke! :)

Thanks to my friend and great trader mfc12 for these pictures and idea :) 

SPX MONTHLY chart: See what happened with the "pesimistic" view that PIC 1(published a year ago) forecasted: market  faded it 100%!

PIC 1

PIC 2

This is pic 2 (published this week) and the corresponding forecast (in btw the lines). What do you think the most probable market reaction would be? Please them? For how long???

shorted ES 1183.25 50%

in addition to existing position



EDIT, will manage position without hard stops until tomorrow opening.

COVEred last batch at 1176.50

not progressing,

-0.5 pt x 25%

added at ES 1176.00, 25%

Covered ES batch from 1179.25 at 1173.25

+6 pts x 25%

Round top

DAX 30 MINS

added 25% to shorts at 1179.25

SL for all,  1184.5

took 25% more off at ES 1174

gap fill here,

12.5 x 25% 

remains 25% of original position

Covered all NQ AT 1974.0

10.25pts x 75%

Took 25% more off at ES 1180.75

rest remains unchanged

5.75 x25%

What a week so far...

Really sick and tired of this market. This is a lot of work for so little profit. Believe me, there are reasons not to buy this market yet but in any case I am just about to letting it explode without me if this sick tape continues. It turn  trading  just into a pointless activity.

Profit count is scarce: 15.75 NQ points and 3,75 ES points (not 100%x, in most cases is 25%x)

Anyway, lets continue with the plan a little longer to get confirmation.

Took 25% off ES 1183,5 and NQ 1976

TIGHTENED stops as well


Partial pt count:
ES 3 x 25%
NQ  8.25 x 25%

Shorted ES1186.50 and NQ 1984.25

sl 1189.50

and NQ 1989

covered all positions until fed announcement is done

I think we can get better prices later.

covered ES 1183.25
NQ1975.75

Stops are in

ES 1185

NQ 1177.5

25% off at ES 1182.50

shorted ES 1183.50

stop hit at ES, keeping original NQ position though

(no hard stop from now on)

shifted stops

NQ, 1975

ES 1982. 5

Opened ES short at 1181.5- updated

SL 1182.75

( in adition to existing NQ 75% short)

EDIT: 5:56 EST
took some off at 1179.75

Interesting article from Martin Armstrong

From the Hole #7

covered 25% at 1971

shorted NQ 1978

edit : SL 1982.5

I know shorting this market may look stupid to some people but I really think there is a good reason to continue to try. R/R is very good although price action is hysterically bullish still.

covered all positions

edit:

grabbed a couple of ES and NQ points but this bullish BS is here again , maybe until tomorrow. May try again later

Shorted NQ 1962.5 (50%)

IN addition to existing ES position

edited , took some off at 1958

Took some off at 1177.75

Trying a short at 1179.50 50%

SL 1181.50

"Time bomb" was set up at payrolls numbers

Some people may think numbers were not that bad given the "positive" reaction SPX and other markets showed. After all UE rate is still at 9.7%. But we need to point out two important things:

• From the fundamentals POV, this charts shed some light about how "benign" this crisis is being.

• From the technical POV we can see that some very important markets reacted very negatively (showing clear risk aversion) just after data was released.

Resulting divergence btw SPX and other markets just add more evidence about the exhaustion of this bullish move. WE may see higher highs on Monday (ES1182-4 is likely), even a gap up, but I insist: red scenario is more valid then ever; moreover, when they pull the rug there will be no time to react if you had not prepared your plan in advance.


GL