Bulls are back, but will have a hard test today

watching nasdaq

This was our game plan for today (posted before opening at www.tradeforthegoal.com. )
It seems NQ tagged descending trend line just to break lows short after. However YM and other names showed a clear bullish behavior so we  have to be extremely careful with short again. In fact i am playing longs ST wise, tomorrow probably.
 

Only if this red thick line is taken out i will believe again in shorts ST / IT  wise

Update

quick update for you guys abut possible next steps,... will try to elaborate more later but I am under tight work schedule now.
Also, excuse me for little posting lately but I am involved in super interesting initiative: a particular and fast growing community of traders. You can learn more at www.tradeforthegoal.com.

Game plan for coming days 3

IF NQ can break out of ascending trendline and fill 2025 gap ( very likely) it should go to retest shorter trendline near blue rectangle zone

I believe we are not done yet

one more push down , even lower low is possible before the big bounce

Game plan for coming days 2

out all 1204.0 ( timed out)

shorted 1204.25

sl 1206

added to shorts at 1201 50%

sl for this one 1204

stopped from this one: pathetic trading guys. never try to trade ST / VST if you dont have time enough to watch the trade. I forgot this rule today and payed the price. Stupid!!
 -3 x 50%

Moment of truth for MSFT

May be an interesting proxy for techs, but in any case an interesting setup.

Chart as of yesterday AM.

reshorted 25% at 1189.5

covered 100% at 1189

Limit order hit in AH

3.75 x 100%

shorted ES 1192.75 100%

stopped from previous position

-2.75 x 50%

Short ES 1189.75 50%

SL 1192

quick note: Very likely a good spot to short for a quick move here

stopped from las ES position at 1187

-0.75 x25 %

Covered 1183.25 position at 1183.5

I won't be able to trade tomorrow so I am covering this one and putting Stop loss at 1187 for the rest.

-0.25 pt x 25%

Indicators??? No joke! :)

Thanks to my friend and great trader mfc12 for these pictures and idea :) 

SPX MONTHLY chart: See what happened with the "pesimistic" view that PIC 1(published a year ago) forecasted: market  faded it 100%!

PIC 1

PIC 2

This is pic 2 (published this week) and the corresponding forecast (in btw the lines). What do you think the most probable market reaction would be? Please them? For how long???

shorted ES 1183.25 50%

in addition to existing position



EDIT, will manage position without hard stops until tomorrow opening.

COVEred last batch at 1176.50

not progressing,

-0.5 pt x 25%

added at ES 1176.00, 25%

Covered ES batch from 1179.25 at 1173.25

+6 pts x 25%

Round top

DAX 30 MINS

added 25% to shorts at 1179.25

SL for all,  1184.5

took 25% more off at ES 1174

gap fill here,

12.5 x 25% 

remains 25% of original position

Covered all NQ AT 1974.0

10.25pts x 75%

Took 25% more off at ES 1180.75

rest remains unchanged

5.75 x25%

What a week so far...

Really sick and tired of this market. This is a lot of work for so little profit. Believe me, there are reasons not to buy this market yet but in any case I am just about to letting it explode without me if this sick tape continues. It turn  trading  just into a pointless activity.

Profit count is scarce: 15.75 NQ points and 3,75 ES points (not 100%x, in most cases is 25%x)

Anyway, lets continue with the plan a little longer to get confirmation.

Took 25% off ES 1183,5 and NQ 1976

TIGHTENED stops as well


Partial pt count:
ES 3 x 25%
NQ  8.25 x 25%

Shorted ES1186.50 and NQ 1984.25

sl 1189.50

and NQ 1989

covered all positions until fed announcement is done

I think we can get better prices later.

covered ES 1183.25
NQ1975.75

Stops are in

ES 1185

NQ 1177.5

25% off at ES 1182.50

shorted ES 1183.50

stop hit at ES, keeping original NQ position though

(no hard stop from now on)

shifted stops

NQ, 1975

ES 1982. 5

Opened ES short at 1181.5- updated

SL 1182.75

( in adition to existing NQ 75% short)

EDIT: 5:56 EST
took some off at 1179.75

Interesting article from Martin Armstrong

From the Hole #7

covered 25% at 1971

shorted NQ 1978

edit : SL 1982.5

I know shorting this market may look stupid to some people but I really think there is a good reason to continue to try. R/R is very good although price action is hysterically bullish still.

covered all positions

edit:

grabbed a couple of ES and NQ points but this bullish BS is here again , maybe until tomorrow. May try again later

Shorted NQ 1962.5 (50%)

IN addition to existing ES position

edited , took some off at 1958

Took some off at 1177.75

Trying a short at 1179.50 50%

SL 1181.50

"Time bomb" was set up at payrolls numbers

Some people may think numbers were not that bad given the "positive" reaction SPX and other markets showed. After all UE rate is still at 9.7%. But we need to point out two important things:

• From the fundamentals POV, this charts shed some light about how "benign" this crisis is being.

• From the technical POV we can see that some very important markets reacted very negatively (showing clear risk aversion) just after data was released.

Resulting divergence btw SPX and other markets just add more evidence about the exhaustion of this bullish move. WE may see higher highs on Monday (ES1182-4 is likely), even a gap up, but I insist: red scenario is more valid then ever; moreover, when they pull the rug there will be no time to react if you had not prepared your plan in advance.


GL

Covered all at 1175.25

will retry later

edit:
We cannot rule out backtest of highs nor testing 1182-4 level on ES

Coverd some at 1174.0

shorted 1177.25 - 50%

SL 1179.25