"No hay dos sin tres" (updated)

Universe and Nature tends to even up all distressing events. Market is no exception.

GL tomorrow.



PS, 
Most bloggers try to convey their thoughts with articles or charts at best. Very few demonstrate their knowledge and skills with successful trades. And although those are good ways to share knowledge, it is not less true that human being learn much more from their mistakes than from their good choices. So I decided to share a RT mistake with you. Not that it has ended up with bad results yet , in fact it is an ongoing trade but it is wrong from the get go. Why?. Cause it is going against major trend , and I am trying to get cute against it . So I have two possible outcomes : 
a) I get stopped out and lose money + possibility to stay on the right side of the trade for BIG profits. 
b) I got right, trade goes my way, I made some (LITTLE) money, I feel I am good and I do it AGAIN next time until a) occurs.

So this is  my testimonial trade:


" I did an horrid trade today, I' ve just bot around 1076 ES after the close"


11:00 am EST Update: 


After holding overnight and incurring in an excessive risk at doing so, I ve taken out some off at 1081  


08_13 Update
Finally they stopped me with the AH selloff yesterday. Even if  grabbed a couple of points, it was a sucker trade. Why? because it  makes you focus on the small fish, and losing attention to the bigger move, ( IT trend) , where the real money is.


However , one more rally may be in the works, but it will be only to shake out late bears before the real deal.


GL

Bite the dust ( it was announced uh ? )

Previous chapter here :   

Covered 25% remaining at 1095.5

+ 28.75 pts

May reshort later

Covered 25% at 1110.75

+ 10.25 x 25% ( calculated over last batch shorted , not over average). There fore holding 25% short from 1124.25

Added 25% to shorts at 1121

Now riding 50% of intended position

Covered 25% more at 1111

Another 13.25 x 25%

Took 25% more off at 1111

+13.25 pts

Took 25% off at 1117

+7.25 pts

Short position established at ES 1124.25

mental stop for now , will set hard stop after tomorrow.

Cost of choosing

There is a possibility we gap up on Monday and  go to 1135
There is a possibility we go to 1150
Famous trader said there is a possibility we go to 1187

It is evident that there is more than one "reasonable" choice. So what about other choices?. Have you made yours?

Before you do , remember, trading is like picking a path at a laberint: you will achieve something but you will also lose something, by definition.

Assessing potential losses if one is wrong  is even more important than assessing how much one will make if being right. Sound obvious, so I am sure everyone of us think about both aspects before entering any trade :)

The hidden truth

The Bull has gone a long way, defeating even the most bearish minds. Back then in our last post  on July 9 th ES was at 1066 , today's high was 1126. But everything  comes to an ending; and particularly at Fiesta Brava that ending is well known. The best and only companion of a true toro bravo (fighting bull) is death, which is always within its reach. For that reason, their mutual encounter is just a matter of time.

Enjoy

Pic from JavierSesma.