Find the coincidences....

Here are some charts corresponding to stocks from different sectors. However, they have some traces in common:

1. they are BIG players
2. they left some patterns on Friday.
   

Could you tell what kind of message those patterns suggest?

Review II

Let's continue with some reviews.

Very interesting set up at the Dow. Thoug many are wating for 10000+, there are some concerns to bear in mind.


Regarding currecies, our RSI setup is giving signal again:

SmART guy

Art Cashin The Chief of this trading floor:




has these thoughts regarding markets (as of 10-14)

Review I

Hi everybody,
Finally today I could make some spare time to review charts and do some postings. I hope you heard the message from the Market yesterday :), I believe it might have been the beginning of an interesting move.

Let's see some findings to clarify our play for next week:


Major market index facing thick resistance:

Major market index close up view:

NASDAQ Comp: broke trend line, with flat OBV and declining Mc Os.















Russell 2000 also presents a clear divergence just below a potential double top.

SOX more divergences at the potential IT top.

Message from market!!!

To the tick (again)

Finally ES reached the defined target 1090 (see white dotted line in previous post) , though a reflection is due here: I didn't trade it as my own analysis depicted it. Instead I traded what I believed it was going to happen ( shorter bounce). The learning is clear once again:

Trade your system, not your expectation.

Will be back soon

Hi all,
I am very busy at work these days and also loaded with social commitments, that is why I couldn't post these days. Thanks for your emails and interest.
Anyway can't wait to next week when I will be able to get back to research and post here again. Please stop by ...


Regarding last post, the bounce was spot on though it surpassed my expected levels. I got overconfident about the short side and forgot my 1090 original target. The bounce from 1020 zone had that target ... I don't think it will get that high but technically is entirely possible.

To the tick

ES bounced precisely from defined levels just to the border of 1039-45 area ,once it took out the resistance level (blue tinted). Mc Os did cooperate with a bounce as well. We can expect some more penetration into 1049 level today but basically the strongest part of the bounce is already done. Only if 1045 is taken out with authority bulls can recover control.

Multiple gaps across currencies openings suggest futures will open on strength

The only cons for this scenario is the increasing strength on JPY.

Edit: After JPY slowed down during the first hour, the above mentioned gaps on currencies impacted positively on futures as expected.

To bounce or not to bounce...

First of all, we see that the main (mid term) trend is still bearish which means that the strongest moves will be to the downside but we can see some signs of exhaustion and a probable bounce for the VST, after which we expect lower prices.

Here are the reasons that favors the possibility of a bounce

It is more clear at Nasdaq: We see how it found support at previous resistances + it made a hollow red candle ( increases possibilities of ST reversal) + divergence with OBV which is VST bullish. The "only" factor missing is a more pronounced reversal at the McOs which would reveal internals are also improving.




Anyway, regarding mkt internals we can see the following chart which do show more clues about a VST bounce:



At the ES we can also see how the price was contained by the orange lower channel and it respected the FIB retracement (red line) which is VST bullish.
Again, Mc Os is not yet confirming the bounce and this is the main reason not to be sure about it.



The main obstacle for the potential bounce is the 1026 area (previous resistance) which already stopped the bullish reaction on Friday. If taken out, then the path is cleared until 1039-45 area.



DJ Industrials also respected 2009 bullish trend line and important 38% Fib retracement


Similar picture at Major Market Index, 2009 trend line respected and previous resistance now became support.


Last but not least we had the confirmation of this mid term bearish trend at bonds as we were anticipating. TNX did make lower lows and lower highs in the last weeks and now it found support for the VST IMO.





P/C ratios are non conclusive but still showing quite high (fadable bearish sentiment) values

Just two weeks ago....

Before posting about next week, I 'd like to recap some charts and articles posted before just to get a more comprehensive view and eventually pull some insight out of them now that we can see the outcome.

You might remember some market internals studies we were addressing, particularly this chart about NYHL as a leading indicator during divergences.
Take a look at the updated one below. SPX has lost approx 5% after making only a marginal high since then




Regarding currencies as indicators, we were posting this chart among similar others.

Look at the updated ones below:






Also regarding currencies, the most directly related to SPX was at those moments USD (recently they have been less connected). This was our view on USD 2 weeks ago:

Please, see updated chart below:

Quick recap

As the saying goes: market will do the most obvious move in the most unobvious way. And it did.
It sold off hard after the new as expected but things got complicated since it didn't rally before as we expeected but after the sell off, which the door open to more upside. The thick resistance around ES1026 could not be breached under Friday's session typical low volume. So the close was quite in no man's land.
Anyway due to some internals overbought condition that still persist, we believe the bounce is still in the cards. We will post more on this later.

BTW, another "reaction" to the ended Recession....