Sunday, October 04, 2009

To bounce or not to bounce...

First of all, we see that the main (mid term) trend is still bearish which means that the strongest moves will be to the downside but we can see some signs of exhaustion and a probable bounce for the VST, after which we expect lower prices.

Here are the reasons that favors the possibility of a bounce

It is more clear at Nasdaq: We see how it found support at previous resistances + it made a hollow red candle ( increases possibilities of ST reversal) + divergence with OBV which is VST bullish. The "only" factor missing is a more pronounced reversal at the McOs which would reveal internals are also improving.




Anyway, regarding mkt internals we can see the following chart which do show more clues about a VST bounce:



At the ES we can also see how the price was contained by the orange lower channel and it respected the FIB retracement (red line) which is VST bullish.
Again, Mc Os is not yet confirming the bounce and this is the main reason not to be sure about it.



The main obstacle for the potential bounce is the 1026 area (previous resistance) which already stopped the bullish reaction on Friday. If taken out, then the path is cleared until 1039-45 area.



DJ Industrials also respected 2009 bullish trend line and important 38% Fib retracement


Similar picture at Major Market Index, 2009 trend line respected and previous resistance now became support.


Last but not least we had the confirmation of this mid term bearish trend at bonds as we were anticipating. TNX did make lower lows and lower highs in the last weeks and now it found support for the VST IMO.





P/C ratios are non conclusive but still showing quite high (fadable bearish sentiment) values