covered all at ES 1257

Too much noise for my taste.

25% off at ES 1253

shorted ES at 1262

Do Not be greedy

And this during Santa's season as it is generally speaking.
In other words: when you see too much abundance, step back and think about it....

ES 1253.5 as I write

I will be shocked if they open next week above 1252-3 area


GL to all and Merry Christmas to everyone!

Covered remaining longs

at ES 1242.5

Took 25% More off at 1231.25

Covered 25% more at ES 1217

Holding 50%

Long ES 1203

Risky

edit: holding and expecting some kind of rally in AH to exit

R I P Cesaria....

I have just got  this news   http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/12/17/cultura/1324133266.html?cid=GNEW970103.
Which is extremely sad for me, I really love this woman's voice and style.

Thanks for so many beutiful songs and for being so authentic.


Just sublime stuff,


Golden classic:

covered all at 1211.5

I will regret this boredom and lack-of-time driven trade....

added to longs 25% at ES 1209.25

25% more off at ES 1220.5

25% off at 1218

Long at ES 1209.5

Wont be free to trade properly tomorrow or Friday...

covered 1206

no reason to hold on this

Long Es 1205 50 %

Covered remaining puts at 5.45

not great exit but, given lack of time to trade today I will have to make myself happy with it.

Covered 25% remaining at 1210

good enough for dinner money :D

50 % more off at 1213

Nice and quick 29 (FOMC) handles

:)

25% off at 1232.5

Shorted ES at 1242

Covered 25% more at 5.05

SPX 1133 should give some bounce

Covered 25% position of Spy 125 puts at 4.71

Mystica

Alto papo!!

BOT SPY Jan 125 put at 3.96

VVST ONLY

I covered all at1249 Z1 equivalent

I am fed up with this tape,  even if the bear case is still alive IMO.

GL to all

Took 25% more off at 1239.5 Z1 equivalent

Took 25% off at 1236 Z1 equivalent

after several trades to improve avg and unfortunate stop out today I build 1255 Z1 equivalent. Which I just covered 25%.

Awful tape, awful trade... just wish it ends soon.

Short ES @1252.5

and holding....

What's next?

Muhahaha

Covered remaining F position at 10.68

Covered remaining DX at 78.23

original entry 

Covered remaining ES at 1250

+97 handles on this last batch

Covered 25% of F position at 10.59

+7.58%
The stock rose   6% just today
Remains 25%  position

Covered 50% of F at 10.38

+5.54% on this batch

Covered 25% more of ES position at 1227

+74 handles on this batch.

Covered 25% DX position at 78.4

Dollar Index

DX back below 79.3 area and backtesting... an interesting spot.
We are keeping our position http://elescolazo.blogspot.com/2011/11/shorted-dx-at-7937.html since stop loss was never touched.

GL

Covered 25% more at 1193.5

+ 40.5 pts on this batch

25% off at 1170.5

Nice and quick +17.5 pts

Bot ES @ 1153

My letter to Santa is already sent

Is yours too??

:)

GL to all

long F at 9.85

In addition to Dollar future trade 

shorted DX AT 79.37

Long ES 1166.25 - updated

I covered at 1165 after seeing just a very weak reaction.
Waiting for lower prices or a surprise  :)


  12:50 EST   Long again at 1166 .
  2: 23             covered at 1163.25

Con vos en esta Diego!!

Un gran abrazo desde este humilde lugar para el mas grande de todos los tiempos, ahora en este momento difícil.
http://www.clarin.com/sociedad/Murio-Dona-Tota-mama-Maradona_0_593940884.html

Fuerza Diego!!!

Jingle bells, jingle bells....

muahahha

Covered ES longs for tiny profit

not convinced about bottom yet...

Covered CSCO AT 18.27

Dic 19 puts were sold at 1.09
originally bot at 0.60

Thanks to the Options Trader  from las Pampas  for his priceless help

Bad Luck thing solved now :) 

Changing hats

OPened some long positions at ES 1211to play a "high potential " bounce :)

Covered 25% CSCO position at 18.59

I am using Dec 19  puts for this trade 

Covered ES at 1247

Hedged with ES AT 1242

 Even if this is a partial coverage, it is advisable until it breaks down, if it ever happens :(

GL

Como me gusta!!!!

Not trading related. ( even if most things in my life are trading related one way or the other).
But here it goes. I do love this tune....

Shorted CSCO around 19.18

Bye bye

Dirty rally, we all know how it ends ...

if you shorted today near highs, do manage some

 

 

 

Get ready to take defensive positions

 

Be nimble AND defensive

 

TODAY's action in a nutshell

Past and expected action

Who was telling the truth?

Was POMO trade telling the truth?
Was yesterday politicians agreement telling the truth?
Was "buy the corrective rally" strategy telling the truth?

answer NO.

Were charts telling the truth? 
 Let's see:


1. Before

1. Now

2. Before


2.Now

Is ST bottom in?
I dont think so but it is near. Of course we have "what if "  scenario (orange arrows).


Enjoy

Bounce coming - Updated

edit 14:02 EST . 1232 feels ok for a VST long, tho is not advisable for unexperienced traders.

Covered SPY 100 Nov 11 125 puts at 2.24

Juicy short uh ?

Covered ES position at 1245

+ 3 pts

Opened 25% long Es at 1243 to hedge partially puts position

Strong bull? - updated

Politicians BS is really strong these days, not sure if market is....

BOT SPY NOV 11 125 puts at 1.00

covered for small profits

no point in holding during RH

Shorted ES 1266.75 50%

Too much noise

I covered shorts as of Friday cash close ( I dont hold over WE). And reshorted in AH just to see this "miracle" bounce again. I dont know why they are making every dip so easy to buy but it is unnatural action in my view. I 'd better be flat and wait until  a more natural price action returns.

This holly help for bulls cannot last forever :)

Desde el corazon para los Charros de Salamanca

En la vela de espadas este pequeño homenaje a los que con enorme valor visten "de purísima y oro" antes de salir al ruedo.

Toro: full respect

Toreros: even more.




NO PASARÁN!!!!!


Si alguna vez tenes que decidir a qué ciudad de España ir, y si tuviras que elegir una sola, no la pensés más : ni Madrid ni Barcelona. Salamanca es tu novia. Eso dicen los que saben que la belleza que atrae no es la que enamora.



Espero que sigas muy bien ciudad hermosa y noble. Igual que a  los buenos amigos te digo:  nos vemos pronto, siempre.



Abrazo Salmantino.

25% off at 1236

 

in addition to an early morning position management .

 

 

GL

 

Long time

Long time no see so many sucker bulls patting their own back after a green day ( +1.88%) as they had no risk in front of them or as if they had conquered new all time highs. It is true the tape conceded no breather to bears (  I can attest it) but this is the type of sentiment-setup I prefer for Big "surprises".
Price wise there is a nice possibility of gap down tomorrow, even in that case marginal highs would be what is needed to complete a ST top which is scheduled for tomorrow IMO. I am keeping shorts here ( avg 1248.25 ES)  and planning to manage them overnight if the mad cow gives me a chance to.

GL to all but believe me bulls cannot afford to relax.

NYSE is the only healthy one while AMEX shows alarming signs:

I will cover some by the closing

Yes , under water here

Added 50% at 1250

Short ES 1246.5 50%

update

They stopped me for well, even before I was able to add 50% remaining. However, one can presume it was an AH reversal in anticipation of EU bid rates announcement which in addition to lack of solid bottom formation makes me think the bull’s case is very weak. Waiting for the right moment to re short. 

 GL to all 

shorted ES 1242 50%

 

 

 

Say hello to our new flat-mate :)

We better get used to this kind of neighbors

flat at 1221 , taking too long

Covered most upto 1227.5 ES

I will cover if we dont make new HOD real soon

Long at ES1214 area -updated

Take partial profits along the way. We just did it at 1226

Covered 25% remaining at 1231

+ 52pts

May re short later

Covered 25% more

Covered 25% at 1243

Covered half position at 1260.5

Do manage your shorts

Shorted ES 1282 -updated

ES can still run up a few more handles but it worth trying here IMO.

Gl to all


EDIT 3:44 pm EST. Staying short, things will look completely different in a couple of days.


GL

Too vicious of a rally to believe in it

Bottom was not proper IMO, so even if our bullish TL was not breached yet I believe this upmove is fake. You know what it usually means....
Be careful with long positions

A thought

It's no secret I have been bullish all this time from early August. I always believe previous highs were going to be visited before more bearish action. However the next turn for bears is near.
Probably will be later in the week (tomorrow as earliest) but I wanted to share this chart :)

enjoy

Aggressive traders may try long at 1199 area

but is VERY dangerous :(

Stay away from longs if they break below ES 1215

ES 1212

Was just hit now, time to cover most longs and leave just core position if you  "bot the dip"  at 118x

Stay in "buy the dip" mode gentlemen

I believe tomorrow there will be good opportnunities to get ST long (even if ES1291 is stearing at me NOW! :)  )

GL 

 

Can this pig fly today? Hmmm....

 I really dont think so :)

NOW

Now that it seems there no more converted-bears willing to jump anything (most of them got really scared with today's gap up and relentless run up) is the time for a decent pullback IMO.
Is it a good short? nope.
Good traders knew that "Long is the (right) way"  back at 04-10

As always, many thanks to the SD Genius for his priceless guidance :)


ES 1190 as I write.

Also interesting in a day we are revisiting highs:

data as of 10-10 close

clap clap clap Henry!

Ford ( my recent fave) has just tagged  11.1. Some 21% in 3 days J, moreover it helped us to spot the reversal.

Many thanks Henry, time to get some rest .

GL

ES 1154 area, good spot to cover some longs :)

 

IMO

A farewell to a Genius

One of the saddest news we could expect just stroke us a moment ago.
One of few real Gurus of our times has just passed away.
Even if I wasn't an Apple customer I 've always held a profound respect and admiration for the talent of this man who not only funded one of the biggest US Corporation of all times  but RE - INVENTED it again and again. His competitors used evil tactics to get ahead, some of them are suspected to steal Apple work, we all know. But Steve Job's counter attack was always more talent, more smart innovation, more customer focus, more perfection. Can anybody imagine today's  retail user IT world without Apple??
It would be a gray Microworld...

Thanks for everything Mr. Jobs. Rest in all peace.

Getting (early)  deserved recognition

Pullback to let every converted-bear jump in or....

I believe the latter, until there is no more converted bears willing to jump anything.... 

muahahha 

Shame on you Yuri!!!

Is not nice stealing candies from baby bears!!!
That's enough, go back to your room, and you can't have any pudding tonight!.

muhahaha

Today's view

Almost

Bulls where just so close to victory today.... but Bears win IMO. We were able to  join them during intraday before 1165 was broken.


What to expect? . More bear's fun but, wait SPX 1115 (edit) may provide some fun IMO.

I shouldn't be posting this

It was all bear's business today. Well earned after a double top (ES - SPX)  I never believed in .
What to expect?. From SPX perspective they blasted a couple of levels just like that, so they may go back to retest them early tomorrow. But a good trader will only use those moves to add to his existing position from 1220 ish. Target should be around ES 1124, BUT not limited to it as ES1116 is also very logical. Some support could be found around ES1138 but it will likely not hold.

My take: Follow Nasdaq.
Yes, this one is still ST bullish , and I cannot kill that trade until NDX 2238 is taken out with authority.
Again, this is sucker trading, not only because of the index but because of IT trend. But I still believe in it.
We 've entered long NQ avg. 2264 earlier this week and managed here and there, but last batch is underwater currently. Key opening level for tomorrow is 2253 for this future IMO.

Trade safe = stick to IT trend ( bearish)

inYuried??

I hope you are not :)

Despite of the sad news that many good fellow traders were caught by surprise by this up leg we have to analyse our last plan  and prepare scenarios for next week.

ST wise: 
No question bulls demonstrated they are alive, some ppl are still doubting this is serious. Per the resistances and TL's ( see chart) they broken, I assume this is more than just a bounce and my scenario from 09-11 is confirmed,  so I expect more to come next week.  Breakdown of light blue TL daily basis would invalidated this scenario.

IT wise:.... heyyy, one step at the time, bear are still in command here IMO

Trading: It is no secret I covered longs too early this week, I just hope you guys hold at least a core position, it may turn out to be a GREAT trade

Since it is Friday, Yuri wants some more fun at Vostok1  and send us his favorite "weekly" tune.
Enjoy :)

Speed

As my last post stated, bull was not dead. They clearly demonstrated it today. However they went too high , too fast and that is never healthy for a young trend. So be extremely careful if you are willing to buy around here.
If you were long from 112x area then manage, else I'd stay away until Opex tricks are over.

ES 1193 as I write


Trading wise today I failed to follow my plan and screwed it by abandoning long positions I carried from Monday and  shorting 1170 area just following the crowd , stupid. But I won't make a second mistake (chasing bull) to amend the first mistake.

GL to all

Bull is not dead, be careful- updated

 Edit :9-11

Lack of shenanigans (bear's stops run) on Friday suggest Bulls are even more serious. IMO SPX 1250 ( and higher) is now in the works. I know , the whole world is so beared up , all is gloominess but check what SPX has done during the last 23 sessions... what do you see? I know, a bear flag some ppl would say. I 'd disagree. 

In any case if we breakdown early this week then things will be clear and it will decide the mentioned question about consolidation or bottoming process.

GL to all. 

Yuri will attempt one last shenanigan...

Pain before gain coming for bears IMO .


GL to all

Yuri is tired, need some rest :)

Yuri is back .... muhaaas

Long ES 1125

sl 1118 hourly close

Covered 25% more at 1145

Long ES 1113

Possibly is early but worth it...

Long 1134

Wrap up

So yesterday they hit my stop at 1182. I ve been looking for a backtest of 1205 area yesterday to short but it never came. So I am flat, sitting on my hands and spending some vacations days. Not in a hurry to enter shorts, I believe it will come to us sooner than later, I have several spots in mind but as  said before, no rushes, just enjoying holidays:

Previous trade ( check disqus comments at previous post, I am updating positions via Disqus to assure there is a time stamp in all comments) .

long 1099.5 ( in fact due to a an initial scratch, I finally entered at 1102)
covered 25% at 1113
Covered 25% more at 1200.5
added at 1190.75
stopped for all at 1182

long ES 1099.5 - Now, let's trade !

Cheer up!

Ok, I failed to see Mrs. Mkt wishes last several days. She is really weird lately. But we are gentlemen, we don't lose our manners when results go against our interests. All the opposite. We keep our best presence and we stand up.I was very lucky in my early years to learn and play 3 sports very different but so similar at the same time ( Box, Golf and Rugby) that were created and fostered under that principle,  which is clearly British to say the truth and I am proud of having learned  that humbleness and honor are nothing but synonyms at those sports. Life in general and trading in particular are no different IMO.

And by the way, we are ready for the next one:

We also know how to cheer up.





See ya at the Gym, 19th Hole or 3rd Half...

Ok bears, you really impressed everyone. But convinced only suckers.

"Vencerán pero no convencerán"


Don Miguel de Unamuno

You spent all your Sunday money fat greedy boy... see ya tomorrow.


BTW, I still see weekly close above ES1180, to be conservative

LONG NQ 2073

SL 2050

Wise kid makes his Sunday pay last as long as he can, dumb kid spend it all of a sudden an pretends to be the King but only for a single day...
Size matters , but too high speed matters even more.

What we expect for today ....

I 'd get the heck out of shorts at 1163.5 - Someone really BIG is against ya :)

I know I know, this patacon guy again with his crazy stuff, sounds like a broken record.
Todays setup at 1283 gave a 20 pts rally now it looks like failed, I guess it has only gained strength. ( BTW , I covered some and stopped at 89.5 from that one.. not that bad)

Both moves has an author other than me, much more kowledgable. I wouldn't fade him

GL to all as usual

and yES I am long again now, weekly close may surprise to many ppl :)

Aggressive traders may try long at 1183 area or briefly lower low,

60 pts target.
BE nimble if it does not react bullish quicly

VERY RISKY

edit 10:10 - ok, looks good, be active at managing: One could cover some at 1212, 1227, 1241
put SL at BE

edit 10:56 - too slow, nothing wrong with taking some off the table now if you are still long, DO USE STOP LOSS

down side is over at 1212.25 IMO

all bulls from now on, untill next update

Let's rock!

ST - bounce play

I see 2 possibilities right now (2:28 PM EST)

1. buying 1237 ES , at next touch.
2. waiting for the retest of 1230, this one is safer but may not come.

Keep in mind this is counter trend trading, risky and not advisable for others than very experienced traders.

GL

Be smart escolaceros!

all covered 1303 - they really screwed the setup at 1312 -

I guess that confirms context as UI said

covered 25% more at 1309.5

gotta go,

25% covered at 1306

call me crazy but I am looking for 1320 area today if this pullback doesnt take my stop out.

SL shifted to 1299.

Long ES 1298.25

Just to follow Darrendelux :)

edit - Hard SL in place as usual

Weirdo trader

Yes, green arrows scenario is still entirely possible , it has lower technical probabilities compared with continued bear move from here but  6th sense tells me not to rule it out at all.  Moreover it is my favorite one.  ES1285 on a weekly closing basis will invalidate it.
Would I suggest a friend to trade it?. No.
Would I myself trade it? Yes  :)

BTW; Darren got the first part of his plan just as he expected. Congrats !

Take your precautions -

Even though we have hit our first target to the down side after the top called on last post, green level ( thick line) is entirely possible before the final leg down .

GL

Le fin

Check back the original chart if needed please. 

Our second target has been hit today (orange)  and it is certainly a time for a change... Alternatives in green at new chart.

Richeliu may be back, be careful!

First battle: Won by the Revolution

As you can see , the first target level (first orange line) has been hit a moment ago.

Time for the Revolution

Chart taken early today, at the moment of posting.