This is that retest, tick-over, annoying upward chop scenario(ST) I was worried about. On the dollar chart - Connecting the high on the $DXY from 3/11 to 10/3 and yesterday's high, could cause more random violence/chop until late next week. Not a bad call to chill and be fresh for the real deal.
Pata, What is your read of the equity market? Although US major equity indices gapped up big today, surprisingly it was not a major accumulation day (NYSE A/D didn't exceeded 9:1). Besides, VIX didn't make new low. thx
Is the market waiting for news from Merkel and Sarkozy's meeting on Monday (1/9/2012)? By the way, 1/9 is also a full moon. If ECB prints, eur should go down more? if not, money continue to flow into US T-Bill? I can't figure out how it will be healthy for global equity markets?
Hi all!. Happy New Year to everyone and sorry for late response but I 've been out of town.
Thanks for your thoughtful comments. My view is quite poor at the moment since: I didnt expect this up move at all, so I could never profit from it. Gap up on 1-3 is bullish TA wise and price action since then is bullish as well, although is not convincing to me. My gut feeling is they are creating a major bull trap that is why I am not playing longs. For how long will they work on bear's confidence? I dont know for sure but it cant be much if I am right. Traps need to be convincing AND short lived.
This is that retest, tick-over, annoying upward chop scenario(ST) I was worried about. On the dollar chart - Connecting the high on the $DXY from 3/11 to 10/3 and yesterday's high, could cause more random violence/chop until late next week. Not a bad call to chill and be fresh for the real deal.
ReplyDeleteyeah, too much institution phuckery around, I 'd better wait untill MM take over full control.
ReplyDeletePata, What is your read of the equity market? Although US major equity indices gapped up big today, surprisingly it was not a major accumulation day (NYSE A/D didn't exceeded 9:1). Besides, VIX didn't make new low. thx
ReplyDeleteEuro broke below yesterday's low. I don't think this bull run has more than a day or two left. I don't think we'll see much upside for 2 more months.
ReplyDeleteTiming says down. Pattern says up. I say 'this sucks'. Massive gap up monday, perhaps.
ReplyDeleteIs the market waiting for news from Merkel and Sarkozy's meeting on Monday (1/9/2012)? By the way, 1/9 is also a full moon. If ECB prints, eur should go down more? if not, money continue to flow into US T-Bill? I can't figure out how it will be healthy for global equity markets?
ReplyDeleteI'd keep an eye on the eur/chf peg. When that breaks, it gets ugly. Greek reality.
ReplyDeleteHi all!.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to everyone and sorry for late response but I 've been out of town.
Thanks for your thoughtful comments.
My view is quite poor at the moment since:
I didnt expect this up move at all, so I could never profit from it.
Gap up on 1-3 is bullish TA wise and price action since then is bullish as well, although is not convincing to me.
My gut feeling is they are creating a major bull trap that is why I am not playing longs.
For how long will they work on bear's confidence? I dont know for sure but it cant be much if I am right. Traps need to be convincing AND short lived.
GL to everyone