Monday, November 30, 2009
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Bear's "Achille's heel"
If there is a clear weakness for the bearish case is DX bahavior. Although it spiked up a couple of times it never followed through. While this bearish pressure continues, USD carry trade is to continue as well and bullish pressure on stocks markets is likely to endure. So keep an eye on it , we have some interesting levels to watch anyway....
Friday, November 27, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Let's hear to the PIGS
As you may know PIGS is an acronym of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Some economist cluster this mediterranean countries since their economies are quite similar and all less developed when compared with top EU countries.
From that point of view we can analyse them as the "emerging economies" within the EU and therefore expect them to be leaders when it comes to trend changes ( they will be the first to rally once a downtrend is over and the first to drop when an uptrend is over).
In that sense I gathered these graphs to show their behavior compared to SPX.
See how they led at 2003.
and now in 2009... might it be the way.....?
From that point of view we can analyse them as the "emerging economies" within the EU and therefore expect them to be leaders when it comes to trend changes ( they will be the first to rally once a downtrend is over and the first to drop when an uptrend is over).
In that sense I gathered these graphs to show their behavior compared to SPX.
See how they led at 2003.
and now in 2009... might it be the way.....?
News from Europe
Hi traders!
Those who were following market today may now better understand the meaning of previous posts (all that glitters is not gold.. and others). When the price is not coupled with mkt internals and comprehensive sectors support then its destiny is a correction to catch up with leading indicators.
We will post something about currencies later, since they played as usual a key role in identifying risk aversion. Meanwhile check last one to see what really happened with described trend lines .
Some may ask how would Indices look like next session. Though TF, ES, NQ may give an aproximated vision, I wanted to add today's Eurostoxx 50 chart to show how it looked like during EU session (not holiday at that market).
source
Those who were following market today may now better understand the meaning of previous posts (all that glitters is not gold.. and others). When the price is not coupled with mkt internals and comprehensive sectors support then its destiny is a correction to catch up with leading indicators.
We will post something about currencies later, since they played as usual a key role in identifying risk aversion. Meanwhile check last one to see what really happened with described trend lines .
Some may ask how would Indices look like next session. Though TF, ES, NQ may give an aproximated vision, I wanted to add today's Eurostoxx 50 chart to show how it looked like during EU session (not holiday at that market).
source
Snapshots - all that glitters is not gold
Here are some thoughts about current market status.
While many big players will be on holiday , an interesting topping pattern may be on the final resolution phase. It started on Monday and while price has been ranging, some other indicators have been sliding which may well be the clue we are looking for to anticipate the upcoming resolution for this pattern.
While many big players will be on holiday , an interesting topping pattern may be on the final resolution phase. It started on Monday and while price has been ranging, some other indicators have been sliding which may well be the clue we are looking for to anticipate the upcoming resolution for this pattern.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Interesting trend lines for the Aussi
As you may have noticed already, we use AUDUSD quite frequently to assess risk appetite among investors which turn out to be a good proxy for stocks markets.
We are seeing some important LT trendlines tested last week. Decay in momentum also increase possibilities of a deep correction after an initial pop early next week.
If the ST trendline (dashed) is broken, we can expect a sizable correction next week since major trendline (black) has been backtested and failed.
We are seeing some important LT trendlines tested last week. Decay in momentum also increase possibilities of a deep correction after an initial pop early next week.
If the ST trendline (dashed) is broken, we can expect a sizable correction next week since major trendline (black) has been backtested and failed.
Recap II - Major indices
We were pointing out some interesting levels for OEX and DJT last week. We can now check how did they do at the weekly close
DJT
OEX
SPX
Regarding SPX this was our view a couple weeks ago, main levels were succesfully tested this week. See chart below for an updated view.
About Nasdaq we were seeing a LT picture back in October which suggested a ST pop just to drop after. Main levels were tested and respected this week
NASDAQ
DJT
OEX
SPX
Regarding SPX this was our view a couple weeks ago, main levels were succesfully tested this week. See chart below for an updated view.
About Nasdaq we were seeing a LT picture back in October which suggested a ST pop just to drop after. Main levels were tested and respected this week
NASDAQ
Saturday, November 21, 2009
SP500 bullish percent study
Though we may have a initial pop to ES 1095-8, this chart indicates that mkt internals will lead price down short after.
Recap I
Let's make a recap of the previous post to see what went right/wrong before further analysis this WE.
Here is an updated ES chart where I pasted previous posts headers at corresponding times just to see how did it look at those very moments: tops generally don't make you feel like market is "topping" but it may be doing so.
At those moments many people were seeing a super bearish market while many things underneath (like the one posted here) were telling otherwise
Here is an updated ES chart where I pasted previous posts headers at corresponding times just to see how did it look at those very moments: tops generally don't make you feel like market is "topping" but it may be doing so.
At those moments many people were seeing a super bearish market while many things underneath (like the one posted here) were telling otherwise
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Market internals review
Hi traders,
Here I gathered some market internals charts, you know I use them very frequently since they usally lead externals components such as price. As you can see we have meaningful devergences among all of them which favors an upcoming pullback down or even a initiation of a down leg. In any case they favor the bearish case .
Also notice that Nasdaq is weaker and leading the path, so keep an eye on it next week.
Bullish percent on SPX making a new weekly low
Mc Os pulling down clearly
NYHL
NASDAQ internals:
As well as BPSPX it has made a weekly new low.
Here I gathered some market internals charts, you know I use them very frequently since they usally lead externals components such as price. As you can see we have meaningful devergences among all of them which favors an upcoming pullback down or even a initiation of a down leg. In any case they favor the bearish case .
Also notice that Nasdaq is weaker and leading the path, so keep an eye on it next week.
Bullish percent on SPX making a new weekly low
Mc Os pulling down clearly
NYHL
NASDAQ internals:
As well as BPSPX it has made a weekly new low.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Proxys
Despite the VST technical bounce we are experiencing I expect more downside late today. I think this bounce may reach ES1093 but in anycase will be short lived.
These are 2 proxys I am following, look at the setups...
These are 2 proxys I am following, look at the setups...
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Confluence zones
Bearish setups all around, double tops, fake breakouts...
Among others we can see:
OEX
DJT
Among others we can see:
OEX
DJT
USD is on the move
As a continuation of the previous post, here you have a daily chart of DX (USD)
We expect a bullish continuation of todays move.
We expect a bullish continuation of todays move.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Resistance levels
Finally ST target was hit on DJI
Now we are expecting some pullback down
This scenario lines up well with the resistance levels SPX is facing. Overall we think main indices will experiment some pullback down before another possible attemt to highs.
SPX big pic
SPX close up
Now we are expecting some pullback down
This scenario lines up well with the resistance levels SPX is facing. Overall we think main indices will experiment some pullback down before another possible attemt to highs.
SPX big pic
SPX close up
Monday, November 09, 2009
ST target
Well, seems ES target for today was almost hit. Despite the pullback to 1066 area didn't come in first place, market demonstrated that bulls can retake control in a dime. All mkt internals, VIX and USD moves we were watching last week did line up today to support bullish case in full force.
Next steps:
I like DJIndu setup to describe next potential target. Here it goes a self explanatory chart
Next steps:
I like DJIndu setup to describe next potential target. Here it goes a self explanatory chart
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Friday, November 06, 2009
Interesting
Interesting, all BAC,C,FNM and AIG are leaving hollow red candles (generally trend chage)
Thursday, November 05, 2009
We warned you...
Finally the rally came after over sold internlas and overextended VIX move, just as our charts were pointing.
Now we expect a red Friday and ideally, the beginning of a down leg.
Will post some charts during Fri and WE.
Now we expect a red Friday and ideally, the beginning of a down leg.
Will post some charts during Fri and WE.
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