Some trend lines to watch early next week

Trend lines, price momentum and mkt internals suggest ST top is near. Another marginal higher high is possible but I expect the top will be printed before the end of the week.

Weekend update

Well , 2 things happened , but as usual with Mrs market it happened in an unexpected way, the ES1067,5 level we were expecting after the bounce occured today before any meaningful bounce (although we did have a 23 ES points bounce today , but it was smaller than expected).

Now, the path looks more complicated because market needs to retest higher levels before more downside , so it may need to backtest ES1112-4 level from ES1069 which is a long ways. Anyway, it seems the most probable scenario

We will post updates of FTSE setup tomorrow to follow it up since we still believe is a valid indication of what other international indices will do in the short term.


Some charts as promised:

Overall view (ES)




Close up, daily view (ES)



DJ Trans (daily)





Nasdaq (daily)


SOX daily


Russell 2000 daily



OK, now one important guy that DID NOT break its channel, and might well be a clue

DJ Industrials daily

Nasdaq and DJ Transportation Update

Nasdaq (previous analysis here)




DJT previous analysis here

Recap II - Major indices

We were pointing out some interesting levels for OEX and DJT last week. We can now check how did they do at the weekly close

DJT



OEX



SPX
Regarding SPX this was our view a couple weeks ago, main levels were succesfully tested this week. See chart below for an updated view.




About Nasdaq we were seeing a LT picture back in October which suggested a ST pop just to drop after. Main levels were tested and respected this week
NASDAQ

Thoughts for next week

I will post a more comprehensive review of what happened this week later. Meanwhile here are some thoughts about next week outlook.


VIX monthly



VIX weekly

NASDAQ 100

NASDAQ COMP

BULLISH PERCENT - NASDAQ

Indices review

Let's make a weekly wrap up reviewing main indices to update previous post on this.

SOX review

RUSSELL 2000 review:

DJ transports review.

DJ industrials

XMI review:

A monthly view of Dow Jones Transportation Avg.

Plan A & Plan B

Since market continues to show strength today I traded long setups until the close. I am expecting a continuation of this bullish trend tomorrow and the trading plan continues to be buying the pullbacks and fading support levels until the facts prove this strategy wrong.
Nevertheless there are many conditions that any decent bull should be aware of:

• Extreme bullish sentiment among retailer investors (ISEE=150), which is normally faded by the market .
• Possibility of a double top on some important indices so I will be watching the following levels and indicators to anticipate a potential sell off if those levels are not taken out.

"Toppy" levels:
DJ Transportation




Nasdaq Comp



Indicators to watch: (signaled moves would correspond with a bearish move in equities)
USD


EURJPY- Important resistances zone (previous highs)



ZB- 30 year T Bonds Future