Bear's "Achille's heel"

If there is a clear weakness for the bearish case is DX bahavior. Although it spiked up a couple of times it never followed through. While this bearish pressure continues, USD carry trade is to continue as well and bullish pressure on stocks markets is likely to endure. So keep an eye on it , we have some interesting levels to watch anyway....

Heads up

How many heads up will some bulls need ???

US Dollar view

It is not only about the USD but.....

Lastly it has been entitled as the main cause of stocks markets moves due to the carry trade utilization. Today showing more strength and on the verge of trend break.

Seeking the unobvious (updated)

Turning point time guys. This last week has been really shocking but at least set something clear: Bulls are still in total control of this market.
I will post later my vision about different time frames and try to put all the pieces together in one picture. Meanwhile I brought this short term charts. The only objective is to balance the astonishing impresion that SP500 and some other indices gave us on Friday's close. I think some other indices and instruments showed less strength, at the close or in previous 2 days. This makes me think that on Monday/Tuesday we can have some correction (finally). After that correction I expect more buying pressure.
So this is bear's short term tiny hope as far as I can see :)


SPX- OIL/GOLD spread


SPX- DAX/SHATZ spread


SPX vs. USD comparison



6E . Euro future closing on Friday.



Nasdaq 100 future . See previous chart

Currencies: who should I trust in?

Recently there has been some talking about currencies since we experienced a very short term decoupling from Euro and equities which normally go together. Moreover, many traders refer to USD indices to look for clues since in the long run it is inversely correlated with US stock markets. Also JPY played a very important role during last bull market since it was the currency used by carry traders to benefit from the lower Japanese interest rates.
I myself like to watch currencies for confirmations or sometimes early signs of moves in equities but to clarify a little their behavior I pulled these charts out so we can see how these instruments played during the last years and ideally how to take advantages of them in the future.



Close up view:




So, in general I prefer to watch the Euro future (or its correlative at Forex: EURUSD ) for clues. Also EURJPY is very interesting as a leading indicator, I will try to post some charts later.

Too strange

Euro at S2 and Gold tanked , USD ripping up to R2 (we love you Mr Buck) but ES still at 1003 zone. Currencies are docoupling today or something strange is happening

Many Thanks Mr. Buck :)

C' mon Buck! Make bears happy

Is it going to wake up by night??....mysterious critter

Plan A & Plan B

Since market continues to show strength today I traded long setups until the close. I am expecting a continuation of this bullish trend tomorrow and the trading plan continues to be buying the pullbacks and fading support levels until the facts prove this strategy wrong.
Nevertheless there are many conditions that any decent bull should be aware of:

• Extreme bullish sentiment among retailer investors (ISEE=150), which is normally faded by the market .
• Possibility of a double top on some important indices so I will be watching the following levels and indicators to anticipate a potential sell off if those levels are not taken out.

"Toppy" levels:
DJ Transportation




Nasdaq Comp



Indicators to watch: (signaled moves would correspond with a bearish move in equities)
USD


EURJPY- Important resistances zone (previous highs)



ZB- 30 year T Bonds Future

Bulls best friend

Ok after a super bullish day when ES reached 1000 pts. is time to see some causes. Regardless of the intrinsic strength of equities, one factor cannot be overlooked: weak USD propelled this rally just when it was going exhaust. Accordingly, its counterpart, the Euro future, gave a lot of fun to some fellows traders (congrats Canuk and EminiAddict!)
Here is the EURUSD chart and some reasons to believe there is more room to rise after some consolidation. Enjoy

Bulls best friend: