Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Currencies: who should I trust in?

Recently there has been some talking about currencies since we experienced a very short term decoupling from Euro and equities which normally go together. Moreover, many traders refer to USD indices to look for clues since in the long run it is inversely correlated with US stock markets. Also JPY played a very important role during last bull market since it was the currency used by carry traders to benefit from the lower Japanese interest rates.
I myself like to watch currencies for confirmations or sometimes early signs of moves in equities but to clarify a little their behavior I pulled these charts out so we can see how these instruments played during the last years and ideally how to take advantages of them in the future.



Close up view:




So, in general I prefer to watch the Euro future (or its correlative at Forex: EURUSD ) for clues. Also EURJPY is very interesting as a leading indicator, I will try to post some charts later.