Monday, August 24, 2009

Market Outlook

As promised, I put some pieces together and now wanted to share with you one integrated picture of my market views:
1st of all, many thanks to UiDezine for his unique insight about markets. Much af my current view has changed due to his arguments which together with market action have made me reevaluate my stance.
After researching a lot charts of them last week, I found these ones can sumup what my LT and IT views are.

As I needed more than only mad-bulls-price action to support any bullish view I pulled some internals related stuff (I thank mfc68 for recalling me of its importance) since is much more reliable in my opinion:

  • Here we can see a picture of IT and ST


Ideally, if divergences provide a retracement to the green arrow, we can have a clean IT long entry.



ST close up view : Divergences at oscillators



  • Fundamentals view:

Pata: what do you think about news saying economy is really getting better?
Pata: BS!!!

It doesnt mean much from the practical point of view since I dont trade LT but I won't buy BS either!I will be happy to trade from the long side (ST and IT) and assume this bullish move can last many months but I refuse to believe in miracles. Period

There is a ton of charts showing it but I like this one comparing SPX with Baltic Dry Index and Shangai Comp. These last two led previous fall and recovering. Just posting a close up view here.




"Buy high sell low".... wasn't that the saying....no??? Well that is what the guys buying this must be thinking :)





Inflation??? what inflation??




Finally, reposting here some words from a really seasoned trader: Art Cashin We Could See 'Historic Trading' Soon