Wednesday, August 19, 2009

"Real economy roots" for our financial trading

Baltic Dry Index
As the sharp Spanish investor SimpleNoRisk pointed out timely, there are many reasons to keep an eye on BDI.
In general I try to keep my mind clear of economic data on analysis while trading in order to approach markets with no preconceived notions but in any case we always need a "framework" or general idea of what is the most probable scenario for the midterm (IMO long term view is for institutional investors and "gurus" so not my business). That is why I came up with the Bonds study currencies, and now with BDI. I want to build some scenarios for the months to come and more important, avoid the influence of all type of financial media to direct my trading. I believe charts are the only trustworthy source.

In this particular case I wanted to point out how BDI has lead stock indices in the past and how now is signaling a potential reversal since is making lower highs. Note also how Shanghai's SSEC is following it much closer than SP500 which presents a bigger divergence. If stocks indices are to follow BDI (which I believe) then SP500 is due for a stronger correction in the midterm

BDI, SPX, SSEC comparison.



Close up view of divergence