Sunday, August 09, 2009

Weekly wrap up

I am seeing overall strength at equities markets thus played mostly from the long side.

We did have some surprises like late sell offs and weakness at EURUSD and Techs.
Another factor to watch is bonds behavior (see chart). They plunged on Friday after weakening for several days. As we can see they have been rising since March hand in hand with equities so if this correlation is about to continue we should see one of this two: a quick recovery in bonds (unlikely) or a bearish move in equities.



Sum up: Main trend is still bullish. I believe up trend will continue in the short term. A good accomplishment for bulls would be a daily close above ES1008. Anyway, some signs require attention as they can be early indicators of a meaningful pullback in the short term ( EURUSD, Semis, Bonds).

Edit: Oil performance can also give us some clues. I will post some charts on it shortly.