Sunday night thoughts...

Comparison chart. 10 y Tresaury (green - red candles) and SP500 future (gray candles)

Dirty tricks are back...... for the moment

OK, they did every single trick to avoid a huge break down. So far they have contained price at many major indexes. However there are a few of them which still show clear bearish signs.


DJR - weekly


See the same trend line and levels from upper channel at a closeup look



RUT


close up view

Covered half at 1102.5 and rest at 1105

Clogged and rigged market as I was fearing, 2009 and GS grinding machine is back guys.

Short ES 1106 50 %

Just covered at 1103

Only minor profit since this trade has timed out without progression.
I still maintain the bearish view and longer term short positions too but this price action is just dangerous for shorts on futes below 1114ES

Short ES 1104.5 50 %

Covered 1098.50 for -1.25, will try later

Short ES 1197.25 50%

Covered ES at 1186 for + 21pts on this last batch

Trade initiated here

NQ 1780 target also hit a moment ago

Will reload later

Game plan updated.

Overall, previous game plan stays the same. We are looking for NQ 1780 and ES1085 areas to start with.
Here is a chart from earlier today.

Covered 25% more at ES 1092.75 - Remains 25% position

Probable ST bounce area

BTW, UI Dezine, thanks for everything, you are a True market wizard!
:

Minimum probable target for this ST bounce is 1104 ES, also 1107 marked in gray line. However the bounce can easily surpass it given oversold internals.
IN any case this would be an opportunity to add to existing IT short positions.

Covered 25% more at 1095.25 - remains 50 %

Took 25% off at 1099, just to manage position size

Letting the rest run

shorted ES 1107

Covered all ES 1103

Will reload later

Game plan for coming days

Half out 1105.25

Shorted ES 1109 50 %

Covered 1107.50

The setup is still technically valid price wise, but it is just not safe staying short ST in such a dull market if the trade does not progress rapidly , specially if Banks are ripping up.
I may try again later

shorted ES 1108.25 50%

all out 1107.25

will reload later

Half out 1110.5

Shorted ES 1112.25 50%

R.I.P Updated

OK I know I need to make my post more explicit :) but I just love R. Seixas music and this lyric represent very well what might be happening at market currently: this little rally is dying. Although we don't know exactly when, I am confident the next swing down is underway.

I have reasons to think we have seen the top today and Monday can gap down big. Alternatively we could experience some small run up on Monday but it wont last. As I said before I am looking for much lower prices as of now .





ES daily



ES hourly



As in interesting chart, we can see this one where the time frame is OPEX period....

Slippery when wet

Hi guys and gals,

We got some "surprises" for bulls today finally. Once immediate targets were hit we started to look for some deep pullbacks ( hence shorted ES1103 area), it came under the excuse of Fed rates hike , ... that is just excuse, market needed a pullback. Now the big Q is if they will rally towards 1110 area first or we will likely flush down towards 1085 directly. Given is OPEX time, anything could happen, but I will play the second scenario in principle.
In any case we will head to 1030 sooner than later so any rally will be shortable IMO.

GL,

covered remaining at 1094. 5 for +8.5

JUST COVERED SOME AT 1098

shorted ES 1103

Initial targets have been hit today- time to reevaluate

I will elaborate on this later , just wanted to drop a comment since our target of 1100 ES and on NQ were hit, and we expect market to reverse soon.

Faith- Hope, what is the difference?- What is the ultimate drive?

Apparently nothing to do with trading but the old timers would agree nothing is more important than faith and nothing is more harmful than hope.
(Dedicated to " El Negro" )

Early next week view

As usual Mss Market toy with the paths and she reaches expected points in an unexpected fashion. Is her job after all.... :)

We were expecting a strong rally early Friday if ES1050 and VIX 28 held, or a breakdown if they didn't. Guess what?. Both things happened. They broke down 1050 and generated a climax selling on monster volume. The following furious rally was the concecuence. Of course few traders caught it so many of them (including me) are waiting for a good opportunity to get in.
Going long at 106x is not a good idea to me. I'd wait for a pulback to get in or wait for higher prices to go short (IT BEARISH trend is alive and ES1030 is to be tagged )



Green path is my preferred one

Higher surprises to come

Expecting some sort of pullback after the bounce to go higher next week

Beautiful formation at NQ telling somebig move is on its way

Expecting some sort of ST bounce on equities now

Expecting VIX to top near 28. Other topping signal woud be: after one candle closes above BBand, expect the following to close back inside and some follow through to the downside. This should coincide with SPX ST bottom for today.
This setup is invalidated if AHours lows are taken out with authority, in such a case a break down is a given.

Not everything is the same

UPDATE:
Now that ES1051 area was achieved (as well as TF 584, see chart below) we can expect a bottoming and ST rally which , if respect AH lows MAY WELL reach ES 1075-1080 aera. Furthermore, we have to be prepared for an extended and furious rally even above that area... do you think is not possible? all I can say is BE READY to trade it:)


Well ,bears had its day finally. The ferocity of this selloff exceeded our expectations but is that very steep cahracter it showed wich makes it also due for a imminet pullback ST.
Even most indices and its correponding futures did make a lower low today there is one interesting exception (Nasdaq 100 future) who can very well lead us through the upcoming bounce given its relative strength. (TEchs usually lag when a down move accelerates).

As usual we expect other indices and securities to follow but we present this one because is quite clear:





IN a nutshell this is the game plan for tomorrow (same view as above but using RUSSELL 2000 future to draw the complete setup)



But if ES opens lower and/or VIX open above yesterday highs, be ready for a blood bath from the get go.

Moment of truth 2 - Truth always wins

Here is an update of the previous setup on DAX , as always, we post it cause we think the correlations with all interantional major indices are clear so you can translated these setups to any other major.

The expected sell off ocurred, now some bounce is expected just to drop more in the ST.

Time to cover some shorts, YM reached 10100 target area

Pattern and setup at DJ Industrials Future

Interesting bearish setup if the white trendline is broken. This setup and resistance level correspond with the ES 1100 area aprox. and also with the red shaded area at DAX:
We think they are all facing the same resistances and will respect similar bearish pattern.

Moment of truth

Interesting drop in Greek ST yield bonds

Trading ideas for tomorrow- SP500 future