Friday, April 02, 2010

"Time bomb" was set up at payrolls numbers

Some people may think numbers were not that bad given the "positive" reaction SPX and other markets showed. After all UE rate is still at 9.7%. But we need to point out two important things:

  • From the fundamentals POV, this charts shed some light about how "benign" this crisis is being.


  • From the technical POV we can see that some very important markets reacted very negatively (showing clear risk aversion) just after data was released.






Resulting divergence btw SPX and other markets just add more evidence about the exhaustion of this bullish move. WE may see higher highs on Monday (ES1182-4 is likely), even a gap up, but I insist: red scenario is more valid then ever; moreover, when they pull the rug there will be no time to react if you had not prepared your plan in advance.


GL