Wednesday, November 10, 2010

I will cry all night

I exited CSCO yesterday as I stated RT, in order to keep account balance within risk parameters but broke one key rule: never exit a position if a stop or limit order was not hit. I broke it and now I am paying for it: I had a great setup and I spoiled it...

:(


     
05:49 PM Eastern Standard Time, 11/10/2010 (MidnightTrader) --
 Cisco (CSCO) tumbled lower in after-hours trade after beating Q1 estimates but also issuing a weak Q2 sales outlook.

CSCO dropped to a negative range of 24.12 to 23.29 through the first-half of night trade. Sellers surged into the issue in the mid-session and second-half, hammering the stock south from 23.36 to a late low of 20.97. Evening indications would suggest CSCO records a potential pre-market open Thursday near the 21 mark. The stock demonstrates a mixed session-to-session performance on earnings announcements, posting wider next-day closing levels following 15 out of its last 29 extended-hours earnings events. In the near-term, the stock has moved to favoring a reversal trend, cutting back or narrowing its earnings-driven after-hours moves in the next day's regular session in 10 of the last 12 quarters. Looking deeper into the performance data, we noted earlier today that shorts should be interested to know that CSCO has seen a negative post-bell earnings-driven trade in 17 of the 29 quarters we've tracked, and in 11 of those downside evening moves the stock has followed that trade with a more aggressive negative run in the next day's regular session. The stock's tendency to add to evening downside moves, combined with some rather aggressive sell momentum in the shares tonight would have us looking at a potential short play on the issue tomorrow. Early shorts may want to peg potential entry points at 22 to 21.50, an area that set up as an early second-half top. More risk tolerant shorts may want to bring the entry down to 21.40 to 21.20 in anticipation of the stock starting the day below or near these levels and perhaps making another move south toward 21 or below.
Price: 21.22, Change: -3.27, Percent Change: -13.3
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What was the right trade here? shorting 24.3 as I did or just trusting  this crap will make everyone rich at  the stock market?.
Probably this is just an isolated event but many times one small group of stocks carve the path for the rest of the market to follow.... if this is the case with CSCO, are you prepared?




It is possible we will revisit 1225 area soon but my mssg is: Do you have a  plan in case we don't ?


GL

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