I hope this market is done.I shorted the euro at 1.3745 and I've got a tight stop. I got short the aussie just below parity yesterday with bit of profit locked in to cover me. I still feel like I'm being watched...lol. Hopefully Bernanke doesn't come after me again.
If not here, I'm looking at 1320-1330s SPX. Please don't let that happen, Pata.
That went much better than I expected. It took patience and a lot of risk management. I haven't taken any profits and I'm looking for 7-10 percent off the top before the final rally. That's just my scenario, the levels will take me out if its not meant to be. I am thinking that Pata had a good day today! So, drinks are on you, right?
Thanks, Pata. I'm still very at risk as the dollar is not the best right now(glad I have plenty of SPY short).
I agree and I don't do ST anymore if at all possible. But I do a lot of 'surface scratching' when trying to get into a top, something I need to work at. A smart trader said each IT builds LT. So I will be looking to see what the first leg down looks like before looking to refine my target and my scenarios.
My primary scenario is that the MMs are going to run this and then the feds will step back in. These MMs are smart and they are letting the feds set their own traps. The 'Art of War'. I think there will be one more extended bull run that will cause the ultimate market failure in an 2008 scenario top. But first things first, I want to see this first leg down in this IT.
I'm off to the gym, going to track the Egypt situation and play some Xbox today. Time to play some Modern Warfare, I kill bulls on sight :) Let's see what Sunday night brings to the markets....
Just a few random observations: I often view multiple unfilled gaps in any instrument as evidence for a terminal move. We do have several monthly gaps and daily chart gaps. For now I'm more concerned with the daily, the rest will take care of itself. In this late context, I don't want to be complacent on the SPX, etc.
That being said, it may be worth noting that there is also a nice gap on the /DX futures from 2/9 that hasn't been filled. It may be that it fills very soon and we resume an upward trajectory from there, but one step at a time. Context - there is a /DX gap within arm's distance. On the SPX, some of those are bit more concerning.
Name of the game is to survive and be there when it's time. They are playing the runaway move tactic and they have the dollar cycles going their way. But, should we get the IT surprise, I think it will be scary. The way they are running this market is very dangerous for longs, with support built on a house of cards. So, I'm long some stocks with put protection. I'm staying light on the long exposure with an emphasis on mining stocks. Good luck and thanks for posting your thoughts.
IMO, this is going to be a frantic market into the summer. I think the real action will continue to be in the long silver, short dollar camp. Maybe shorting the airlines for a hedge. This dollar chart needs to puke before we can get back to the LT bear in equities. The fed will wipe out enough shorts to create the short selling opportunity of a lifetime this summer. Many trading/investment accounts will be carried out in body bags. Should be fun.
Fed really shouldn't mess with supply and demand. I am not sure if they are that stupid, or there is some other reason(debt related) they want the system to fail. I still see a lot of upside for oil, so I expect plenty of non-confirmation from the transports. Phoney money, phoney economy, phoney stock bull market.
hmmmm.... This sets up an interesting NFP.
ReplyDeleteI hope this market is done.I shorted the euro at 1.3745 and I've got a tight stop. I got short the aussie just below parity yesterday with bit of profit locked in to cover me. I still feel like I'm being watched...lol. Hopefully Bernanke doesn't come after me again.
ReplyDeleteIf not here, I'm looking at 1320-1330s SPX. Please don't let that happen, Pata.
That went much better than I expected. It took patience and a lot of risk management. I haven't taken any profits and I'm looking for 7-10 percent off the top before the final rally. That's just my scenario, the levels will take me out if its not meant to be. I am thinking that Pata had a good day today! So, drinks are on you, right?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Pata. I'm still very at risk as the dollar is not the best right now(glad I have plenty of SPY short).
ReplyDeleteI agree and I don't do ST anymore if at all possible. But I do a lot of 'surface scratching' when trying to get into a top, something I need to work at. A smart trader said each IT builds LT. So I will be looking to see what the first leg down looks like before looking to refine my target and my scenarios.
My primary scenario is that the MMs are going to run this and then the feds will step back in. These MMs are smart and they are letting the feds set their own traps. The 'Art of War'. I think there will be one more extended bull run that will cause the ultimate market failure in an 2008 scenario top. But first things first, I want to see this first leg down in this IT.
I'm off to the gym, going to track the Egypt situation and play some Xbox today. Time to play some Modern Warfare, I kill bulls on sight :) Let's see what Sunday night brings to the markets....
Watching nasdaq and eur/usd 1.3720s.
ReplyDeleteJust a few random observations: I often view multiple unfilled gaps in any instrument as evidence for a terminal move. We do have several monthly gaps and daily chart gaps. For now I'm more concerned with the daily, the rest will take care of itself. In this late context, I don't want to be complacent on the SPX, etc.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, it may be worth noting that there is also a nice gap on the /DX futures from 2/9 that hasn't been filled. It may be that it fills very soon and we resume an upward trajectory from there, but one step at a time. Context - there is a /DX gap within arm's distance. On the SPX, some of those are bit more concerning.
Name of the game is to survive and be there when it's time. They are playing the runaway move tactic and they have the dollar cycles going their way. But, should we get the IT surprise, I think it will be scary. The way they are running this market is very dangerous for longs, with support built on a house of cards. So, I'm long some stocks with put protection. I'm staying light on the long exposure with an emphasis on mining stocks. Good luck and thanks for posting your thoughts.
ReplyDeleteIMO, this is going to be a frantic market into the summer. I think the real action will continue to be in the long silver, short dollar camp. Maybe shorting the airlines for a hedge. This dollar chart needs to puke before we can get back to the LT bear in equities. The fed will wipe out enough shorts to create the short selling opportunity of a lifetime this summer. Many trading/investment accounts will be carried out in body bags. Should be fun.
ReplyDeleteFed really shouldn't mess with supply and demand. I am not sure if they are that stupid, or there is some other reason(debt related) they want the system to fail. I still see a lot of upside for oil, so I expect plenty of non-confirmation from the transports. Phoney money, phoney economy, phoney stock bull market.