edit 5-9: dont be shy to cover longs around here or at least play very deffensively. No need to be a hero in front of this bearish action. Risk is very high.
Yeah, so far they aren't buying this. Normally, I'd say this is bullish but they're not even accumulating. I'm getting skeptical, but maybe Ben just wants better bond prices for the auction coming up in a few minutes.
Just to add, a lot of this may be currency issues. Retail is massively long eur, aud and nzd. If eur/jpy gets above 104, i'll feel a lot better for the bullish case. Any failure below 104....and you know what they say... 'from failed moves come fast moves'.
Pata, I see a possible reversal here with a better risk to reward short coming thereafter. The eur/jpy is in a nice falling wedge. I'm seeing some buying. I am thinking they want the VIX lower to buy puts. This is dangerous, or a close call either way. Going long is very countertrend and I may lose here. I'll happily reverse to short if i see something else.
I am still skeptical that the bottom was in. The rally was expected given the NYAD/NYMO made extremes. I would be more convinced if we have lower low in price and NYAD/NYMO or VIX do not make new extremes. thx.
took 25% off at 1346.5, taking too long
ReplyDeletestopped from remaining, badly managed trade
ReplyDeletelooks like we're going up. Hopefully straight up.
ReplyDeleteYEP, looking better for bulls now, I wont put my guard down however....
DeleteYeah, so far they aren't buying this. Normally, I'd say this is bullish but they're not even accumulating. I'm getting skeptical, but maybe Ben just wants better bond prices for the auction coming up in a few minutes.
DeleteJust to add, a lot of this may be currency issues. Retail is massively long eur, aud and nzd. If eur/jpy gets above 104, i'll feel a lot better for the bullish case. Any failure below 104....and you know what they say... 'from failed moves come fast moves'.
Deleteit's doom time.
ReplyDeleteNo buying yet, no fear yet. Weird day.
DeleteVolatility was sold today, yet no accumulation. News related gap up? Bulls are very frustrated.
Delete1343 is the key :) and bears own that level , as it is clear now.
ReplyDeleteI expect much , much more doom coming
GL
don't fade pata...
DeletePata, I see a possible reversal here with a better risk to reward short coming thereafter. The eur/jpy is in a nice falling wedge. I'm seeing some buying. I am thinking they want the VIX lower to buy puts. This is dangerous, or a close call either way. Going long is very countertrend and I may lose here. I'll happily reverse to short if i see something else.
ReplyDeleteBig bounce coming. After longs bottom picked their way to bankruptcy.
DeleteI am still skeptical that the bottom was in. The rally was expected given the NYAD/NYMO made extremes. I would be more convinced if we have lower low in price and NYAD/NYMO or VIX do not make new extremes. thx.
Deleteagree, Chen. This is all bear.
Delete